Global smartphone shipments fell 22.0% year over year to 255.3 million units in the third quarter of 2026, the biggest annual drop of any quarter IDC has recorded, according to IDC's preliminary data published Oct. 14. IDC blames the AI-led memory crisis for rising component costs and strained supply.
IDC's table for the top five vendors shows Q3 2026 shipments, market share and the change from a year earlier:
| Vendor | Q3 2026 | Share | Vs Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 57.8M | 22.6% | -5.8% |
| Apple | 57.3M | 22.4% | -4.0% |
| Xiaomi | 30.7M | 12.0% | -29.2% |
| OPPO | 25.6M | 10.0% | -34.5% |
| vivo | 19.1M | 7.5% | -31.5% |
IDC says it counts branded device shipments only, and that the data are preliminary and subject to change.
Samsung and Apple hold up
9to5Mac notes that Apple was 0.5 million units behind Samsung, a gap of 0.2 percentage points of share. IDC's table puts Apple's share at 22.4%, up from 18.2% a year earlier. Samsung's rose from 18.7% to 22.6%.
IDC's Kiranjeet Kaur says the vendor ranking is similar to last quarter and that Samsung and Apple keep gaining share as Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo decline more steeply.
What IDC expects next
Nabila Popal, IDC senior research director, says the market has not yet reached the bottom. She says memory costs are up about 350% since last year and still rising, though the Q3 sequential increase was a low double-digit percentage, against roughly 50% to 100% in earlier quarters.
IDC expects market growth to stay constrained through 2027, with any recovery pushed to 2028 at the earliest.
Francisco Jeronimo, IDC vice president, says the pressure is moving from vendors to consumers, and many buyers are keeping their phones longer. He says Chinese brands face a hard choice between protecting margins and defending volume because of their low-end exposure.
Advice for buyers
Kaur says buyers who cannot put off a purchase are likely best served by holiday-quarter offers, when she expects promotions and discounts to be most attractive, rather than waiting for prices to ease.
Kaur also says some vendors raised production plans ahead of an expected component squeeze next year. If demand stays weak, she says, that could build inventory into 2027 and add downside risk to IDC's 2027 forecast.
Why it matters
Our assessment: if you need a phone this year, the practical reading of IDC's outlook is to compare holiday-quarter offers instead of waiting for prices to fall, since IDC sees memory costs still rising and recovery no earlier than 2028. IDC adds that vendors with scale and a premium mix keep gaining share.
